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市場情緒極度貪婪，美股下跌、台股下跌，金價走跌，原油承壓。 Sentiment: Extreme Greed. US equities decline, TW equities fall, gold edges down, crude slips.
Data source: Yahoo Finance · Updated: 2026-05-19 16:51 UTC · Updated: 2026-05-18 16:49 UTC · Updated: 2026-05-15 16:05 UTC · Updated: 2026-05-14 16:11 UTC · Updated: 2026-05-13 16:23 UTC · Updated: 2026-05-12 16:23 UTC · Updated: 2026-05-11 16:34 UTC · Updated: 2026-05-08 15:27 UTC · Updated: 2026-05-07 19:57 UTC · Updated: 2026-05-06 19:13 UTC · Updated: 2026-05-05 18:56 UTC · Updated: 2026-04-09 17:44 UTC · Updated: 2026-04-08 17:46 UTC · Updated: 2026-04-08 15:40 UTC · Updated: 2026-04-07 15:13 UTC今日圖表Chart of the Day
市場陷入短期恐慌情緒，但長期多頭格局仍完好。若今日守穩關鍵支撐，逢低布局是可考慮的策略；反之若跌破，則需先觀望聯準會態度。
Short-term panic sentiment clouds the market, yet the long-term bullish structure remains intact. If key support holds today, dip-buying deserves consideration; if broken, await the Fed's next signal before repositioning.
S&P 500 今日下跌 -0.44%，報 735.38。RSI 位於 69，尚未進入極端區間。均線多頭排列，長期趨勢偏多。恐懼貪婪指數 84（極度貪婪），市場樂觀情緒偏高，需留意過熱風險。
S&P 500 lost -0.44% today to 735.38. RSI at 69 sits in neutral territory. MA50 above MA200 confirms a bullish long-term trend. Fear & Greed at 84 (Extreme Greed) — elevated optimism warrants caution.
支撐：702.28（20日低點） | 阻力：749.53（20日高點）
深度支撐：674.49（200日均線）
Support: 702.28 (20-day low) | Resistance: 749.53 (20-day high)
Deep support: 674.49 (200-day SMA)
5,400 是本輪多頭關鍵支撐，若跌破將觸發大量停損單。聯準會態度決定資金是否願意追高，為近期最核心的催化劑。技術面 RSI 尚未超買，給予上方空間，但成交量需同步放大才算有效突破。
5,400 is the structural pivot of this rally — a break below would trigger significant stop-loss cascades. The Fed's tone remains the primary near-term catalyst. RSI is not yet overbought, which preserves upside optionality, but volume must expand to confirm any breakout above 5,500.
基本情境：守穩 5,380，放量突破 5,500 測試新高，目標 5,600。
風險情境：Fed 鷹派言論引發回落，跌破 5,380 則短期偏空，需觀察 5,200 支撐。
Base case: Holds 5,380, pushes through 5,500 on volume to test new highs near 5,600.
Risk case: Hawkish Fed sparks a pullback; break below 5,380 shifts bias bearish near-term — next key watch: 5,200.
市場儀表板Market Dashboard
定義：Trend = 收盤價 vs 20/50/200日均線 | RSI = 14日收盤相對強弱 | MA Signal = 50日均線 vs 200日均線黃金/死亡交叉 Definitions: Trend = Price vs 20/50/200 DMA | RSI = 14-day close-based | MA Signal = 50 DMA vs 200 DMA crossover
RSI 58，尚未進入超買區，均線多頭排列結構完整。S&P 500 需守穩 5,380（50日均線）才算維持多頭結構——若跌破，需重新評估部位。量能尚未顯著放大，追高需謹慎。 RSI at 58 — room to run before overbought signals. S&P 500 must hold 5,380 (50-day SMA) to maintain bullish structure; a break below warrants re-evaluation. Volume has yet to confirm the move — avoid chasing without confirmation.
定義：Trend = 收盤價 vs 20/50/200日均線 | RSI = 14日收盤相對強弱 | MA Signal = 50日均線 vs 200日均線黃金/死亡交叉 Definitions: Trend = Price vs 20/50/200 DMA | RSI = 14-day close-based | MA Signal = 50 DMA vs 200 DMA crossover
RSI 63，接近但尚未超買。兩萬一為關鍵整數支撐——每日早盤留意外資買賣超數字，外資連續淨買超是趨勢的重要確認信號。台積電若跌破季線，需降低整體台股曝險。 RSI at 63 — approaching but not yet overbought. 21,000 is the key round-number support — check foreign net buying data each morning as a trend confirmation signal. A TSMC break below its quarterly MA warrants reducing overall TAIEX exposure.
定義：Trend = 收盤價 vs 20/50/200日均線 | RSI = 14日收盤相對強弱 | MA Signal = 50日均線 vs 200日均線黃金/死亡交叉 Definitions: Trend = Price vs 20/50/200 DMA | RSI = 14-day close-based | MA Signal = 50 DMA vs 200 DMA crossover
RSI 74，歷史統計顯示 RSI 超過 70 後通常在 3–5 個交易日內出現回檔。以 NVDA 為首，觀察是否跌破短期支撐作為警示信號。持有者可考慮部分獲利了結，而非全倉追高。 RSI at 74 — historically, tech leaders pull back within 3–5 sessions once RSI exceeds 70. Watch NVDA for the first break below near-term support as a warning sign. Holders should consider partial profit-taking rather than adding at current levels.
定義：Trend = 收盤價 vs 20/50/200日均線 | RSI = 14日收盤相對強弱 | MA Signal = 50日均線 vs 200日均線黃金/死亡交叉 Definitions: Trend = Price vs 20/50/200 DMA | RSI = 14-day close-based | MA Signal = 50 DMA vs 200 DMA crossover
黃金站穩 3,000 美元是結構性關鍵——央行持續購金提供底部支撐。RSI 55，健康且尚有上漲空間。若全球避險情緒升溫，金價有望成為最先受益的資產類別。關注 3,100 能否突破確認延伸漲勢。 Gold holding above $3,000 is the structural pivot — central bank demand provides a durable floor. RSI at 55 is healthy with room to extend. If global risk-off sentiment rises, gold is likely the first beneficiary; watch for a breakout above $3,100 as the next confirmation.
定義：Trend = 收盤價 vs 20/50/200日均線 | RSI = 14日收盤相對強弱 | MA Signal = 50日均線 vs 200日均線黃金/死亡交叉 Definitions: Trend = Price vs 20/50/200 DMA | RSI = 14-day close-based | MA Signal = 50 DMA vs 200 DMA crossover
RSI 32 進入超賣，但下跌趨勢中超賣可以持續更久。不要單憑 RSI 接刀——等待 WTI 站穩 80 美元以上並出現收盤確認，再考慮反彈交易。在此之前，能源板塊仍以回避為宜。 RSI at 32 is technically oversold, but oversold can persist in a downtrend. Don't catch a falling knife on RSI alone — wait for a confirmed close above $80 WTI before considering a bounce trade. Until then, energy remains a sector to avoid or underweight.
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方法論Methodology
TradingView（圖表與技術指標）
Yahoo Finance（即時報價）
CNN Fear & Greed Index（市場情緒）
TradingView (charts & technical indicators)
Yahoo Finance (price data)
CNN Fear & Greed Index (market sentiment)
每日收盤後更新一次。
圖表透過 TradingView 自動同步。
市場評論由作者每日手動更新。
Updated once daily after market close.
Charts auto-sync via TradingView widgets.
Market commentary updated manually by the author each day.
RSI(14)：14日相對強弱指標，>70 超買，<30 超賣
SMA 50/200：50日與200日簡單移動平均線
MACD(12,26,9)：動能趨勢指標
RSI(14): 14-period relative strength; >70 overbought, <30 oversold
SMA 50/200: 50-day & 200-day simple moving averages
MACD(12,26,9): momentum trend indicator
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TradingView Widgets API
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關於About
Ke Lin | 柯林
UCI Paul Merage School of Business — Master of Finance (STEM)
CFA Level I Candidate
每日跨資產簡報，涵蓋美股、台股、貴金屬與能源市場。聚焦技術面趨勢轉換與量化信號，面向金融系學生與初入職場的財務專業人士。 Daily cross-asset brief covering US equities, Taiwan market, precious metals, and energy. Focused on technical regime shifts and quantitative signals for students and early-career finance professionals.